Race 1
Top Pick: #6 Night Trix
Undefeated in 2 starts and already a winner at the distance (5f) on this surface. She’ll be on or near the early lead. Beat allowance company last out and now steps into stakes—though it’s a restricted Nebraska-bred field, making it a logical jump. Form is strong with no knocks. She’s the one to beat. Notably, Jose Medina opts to ride #2 Court Line, who is the main alternative here.
Upset Pick: #1 No More Shots (8/1)
Her last two races were better than they look on paper—she ran 3rd behind Court Line and My Merino Mayor in a strong Fonner Park stakes. Cuts back to 5 furlongs, which should suit her running style well—she’s been fading late at 6f, so the shorter trip helps. Eligible to improve in her 3rd start off the layoff, a key angle.
Race 2
Top Pick: #2 Honeyfromthesouth (3/1)
Excellent recent form with 2 wins and a second from her last 3 starts, all against tougher optional claiming ($10k) company. She’s a reliable filly with a long record of consistency and solid recent figures. Jose Medina rides—and he’s been red-hot.
Upset Pick: #3 Justin Speight (7/2)
Has two wins and a second in his last three starts—all sharp efforts. Last-out win came in good time and he held sway easily. Over $100k in earnings. A logical contender who could get overlooked compared to #2 or #7.
Race 3
Top Pick: #7 Unfathomed (5/2) WINNER
Ran second just last week at this track going 5½f vs. $3.5k claimers. Has back class and competitive 7f experience. Trainer Gonzalez is 21% on the meet and his jockey/trainer combo is clicking.
Live Longshot: #2 Jake the Great (9/2) 2nd Place
Back-to-back solid races, including a game second at Fonner in April. Tied for the best last-out speed rating and 4-for-5 in-the-money at this distance. Can sit mid-pack and pounce.
Race 4
Most Likely Winner: #9 Player One Ready (4/1) WINNER
Owns the highest last-out speed figure and should sit a tactical trip just behind a potentially collapsing pace. Two third-place finishes vs. similar company. Honest maiden with sharp late pace figures—looks ready to graduate.
Upset Pick: #8 Sandhill Mo (5/1)
Not a huge longshot, but will offer value. Closed late in his last race, showing signs of improvement. The race could set up for his style with several overmatched front-runners in the mix. Pedigree hints at stamina (Hightail × Malibu Moon). Improving with each start and has the kick if the speed fades.
Race 5
Top Pick: #7 Xy Face (6/1)
This race could fall apart for the early speed types, and Xy Face looks poised to take advantage with a tactical trip. Comes off a sharp allowance win and drops into a softer $5k claimer. Trainer Gonzalez is winning at 20%. Has solid early pace figures and should be forwardly placed—a great fit for this surface.
Upset Pick: #4 Hurts So Good (10/1)
An 8-year-old veteran better known for turf, but his recent dirt figures are sneaky good. Posted the highest last-race speed rating and hit the board in 2 of his last 3. Chris Fackler stays aboard. Also, don’t ignore #8 War Hawk from trainer David Anderson—his effort two back was solid, and Anderson’s barn is red hot.
Race 6
Top Pick: #3 Jocote (5/2)
Clearly the class of the field. Drops out of $7.5k Optional Claiming and gets Jose Medina (28% wins). Ran a sharp second two back and brings speed and consistency. Likely to get the early jump on this group.
Upset Pick: #4 Just Luck (12/1)
Great value for a horse trained by David Anderson, who is hitting at 46%. Proven at higher levels and owns a win over Jocote last August. A return to peak form could make her dangerous at a price.