Race 1:
Top Pick:#2 Just the Thing is absolutely a win threat. She has already won at Fonner on 2/15 and did it the right way: close/stalk, tip out, finish. If she breaks well here, she’s fast enough to just control the race and go gate to wire.
Contender: #5 Shacked Stateside (2/1) is also likely to be a favorite. She’s shown early pace in a strong recent effort, but there are some real question marks when it comes to the 6F distance, as she’s never won at the distance.
Upset Pick: #3 Funtimegirl (6/1) is a solid value “winner-type” on paper. She’s the most proven at the distance. Also, has a high-percentage barn + rider combo, while facing similar claiming company.
Race 2:
Top Pick:#6 Tapiture’s Lady #3 Tellittothejudge and #5 Fast N Breezy look like the main pace players and could hook up early. It’s possible they soften each other up, and that could set the table for #6 Tapiture’s Lady to sit back and finish over the top late. If she fires anywhere near her best dirt sprint, she’s the most likely winner.
Contender: #1 Lady Mazatlan (8/1) If the pace does get too hot and heavy early #1 Lady Mazatlan (8/1) could be a live longshot and pick up the pieces late. The risk (and why she’s 8/1) is 218 days off. If she’s ready to roll off the bench, she’s an upset that makes sense or to use underneath in exactas and trifectas. Especially, for a top trainer and jockey.
Race 3:
Top Pick:#8 Ruiz Junior has 19 lifetime starts with 4 seconds, so not inspiring a lot of confidence. However, this is the first start for a new trainer, and the first race at Fonner. This could be the one. However, this is a maiden race where anything could happen.
Contender: #4 Mor Tiger Paw owns the highest last-race speed rating, and he ran 2nd vs tougher last out and drops in class today.
Upset Pick: #5 Days in Dublin (10/1). If you’re shopping for a price, check out #5 Days in Dublin (10/1). Has good pace and had some good races at Fonner last year, if runs similar that could be good enough for today.
Race 4:
Top Pick:#7 You have No Idea (5/2) her last out at Fonner (2/14) was a dull 4th, but two back she won at Delta Downs (6.5f) with a strong finish. If she rebounds even slightly, she is the one most likely to put it all together.
Contender: #2 Sweet Mother Mary (3/1) finished ahead of the top pick last out. While many of these have not raced since last summer.
Upset Pick: #4 Springtime Moon (10/1) is worth a look. Solid jockey and shown she can win at 6F distance. Could see this one forward early on (without having to be suicidal), tracks the rail, and Medina pushes the button at the right moment while others flatten out late.
Race 5:
Top Pick:#4 Blissterinthesun (3/1) Should be fun to see what #4 Blissterinthesun (3/1) does today. Last out she blew the doors off winning by 10 lengths. Races before that were at Santa Anita. David Anderson trains and this one could be gone again. Not without concern, a 237-day layoff + class jump. She’s talented enough to win anyway, but the door could open if she gets pressured too much early.
Contender: #7 Flaming Glory is the “logical alternative”. Super consistent and strong trainer/jock stats, 2nd off layoff. The most likely to capitalize if #4 isn’t the one.
Race 6:
Top Pick:#6 Zohere (5/2) is the most likely winner. He’s coming out of much tougher races at Remington Park (allowance/claiming at higher levels) and now shows up at Fonner. That’s significant class relief. Trainer winning at 36% and jockey at 24% makes this one a must bet. The main risk is the break, and hasn’t run in about 2 months.
Contender: #7 Gypsy Mischief will look to break best and take them all the way.
Upset Pick: #4 Lovely Sassicaia (15/1) in a race where early speed wins most of the time at this distance/meet. If he breaks clean, he can land in the exact right spot to press the burners and pounce. Switches to Cardoso (26%) and is now with a high % trainer, a hot combo. That’s exactly the kind of connections you want for a bomb.
Race 7:
Top Pick:#1 Fly’n Frisbee (3/1) is the big “danger horse” in here, and honestly the most talented on raw ability. His races at Aqueduct/Saratoga/Belmont type circuits suggest he’s been exposed to a higher overall competition level. If he breaks sharp, he can put others in chase mode immediately. That may not be easy though as he has not raced in 5+ months.
Contender: #10 It’s Notmyproblem (9/2) just ran 2nd on Feb 21 at Fonner in a short sprint (4f) while involved early, which tells you he’s sharp and breaking well right now, huge at Fonner. Hibdon is a strong local barn and Medina is winning a pile (hot streak noted). In these NE-bred allowances, a live barn/jock combo matters. A 3-year-old vs older and stepping into 6f today, so he has to prove he’ll finish the last furlong.
Upset Pick: #9 Alittle Cash (10/1) if you’re looking for a longshot, #9 Alittle Cash (10/1) is not a one-dimensional need-the-lead type, but he’ll be in the fight early. His last couple starts show him fading in tougher spots. Could spice up your exotics.
Race 8:
Top Pick:#3 My Uncle Leon (2/1) seems like the most likely winner here. He beat most of these foes on Feb 14 at 6f, and did it impressively: stalked, went 4-wide, and finished.
Contender: #8 Time Machine finished a neck behind the top pick last out. He could definitely flip the script this time.
Upset Pick: #1 Thundershook (6/1) lots of pace in this one, if they go too fast up front perhaps #1 Thundershook (6/1) comes flying late to grab a piece.
Race 9:
Top Pick:#6 Motown Dynamic (8/5) multiple wins and strong figures at 5–6f, including a big win at Churchill (10/29/25) and a win last time at Fonner (4/26/25). She’s proven she can go fast and stay fast and win. As strong as she looks there will likely be a huge pace duel.
Contender: #5 Hurricane Lassie (7/2) is the “obvious other.” She’s 4-for-4 lifetime at Fonner, in good form (won 2/22), and fits the speed bias. If you told me she wins, I would not too surprised.
Upset Pick: #8 Sarah’s Court (10/1 ML) just won at 4f at Fonner on 2/14/26. Coming off a nice win and has multiple races showing she can press and finish in these sprinty spots.
Race 10:
Top Pick:#8 Mucho Mia (3/1) Outside post is not a concern. However, not awesome at 6f on paper, but the shape of this race helps her. Lots of speed. Will look to get a stalking trip and be ready once the speed cooks. #10 Uncork It is coming off a 224 day layoff so that is a gamble.
Contender: #5 Real Silk is dangerous, but she’s a truer speed type. If she gets pressed, she’s the one that can be most vulnerable late.
Upset Pick: #4 Flywheel Effect could clunk up late again to round out tri’s and supers.